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发布时间：2006-07-17 10:21     点击：

In recent months Bundesbank representatives and other observers have attempted to explain the rampant growth of money supply on the basis of portfolio shifts between money and "monetary capital" which means the longer-term liabilities of the credit institutions. It is excluded from M3.

   In reality, however, expansion of credit has been driving money supply growth. At the end of 1993, total bank credit amounted to about DM3, 800bn, M3 money to DMI , 900bn, and monetary capital to roughly DMZ , 100bn. With bank credit rising at an annual rate of 10. 3 per cent between the end of 1991 and the end of 1993 ,monetary capital would have to grow substantially above this rate to neutralize the effects of credit growth on M3.

   In fact, monetary capital grew at an annual average rate of only 7. 7 pre cent ,so the annual rise of M3 during this period was 8. 7 per cent.

   If the expansion of bank lending had been used to finance investment in future productive capacity ,there would have been little reason to worry.

   However, between the second half of 1990 and the second half of 1993, real investment in machinery and equipment in united Germany declined by about 4 per cent. This suggests that most of the credit was used for housing construction and consumption.

   An important source of the demand for bank credit was the public sector. Between the end of 1989 and mid-1993 ,public debt rose by 52 per cent. By-the end of 1994 ,the rise will be more than 115 percent. The lion's share of this increase was incurred to finance transfers to east Germany. Since the appetite of German domestic savers for government bonds was not sufficient to absorb the `new debt, the government exported part of it by selling bonds abroad ,and allowed the monetization of another part.

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