这一讲是我们这套二十四讲系列节目的最后一讲。我们要跟您继续谈谈二十世纪末发生在亚洲的金融危机。
亚洲的经济危计是从金融行业开始的。它是如何迅速地蔓延到整个经济领域的呢?美国密执安州立大学的克雷宁教授对此作了解释:
In all these countries, the trouble started in the financial sector. The question is, how did it move from the financial sector to the real economy, to economic growth, to real GDP?
Well there are several channels. Number one is what we call in economics a 'negative wealth effect'. If the stockmarket declines by 40%, then people feel less wealthy; if they feel less wealthy they buy less; if they buy less, less is produced and fewer people are employed. So that's one channel.
But there were other channels through investments where the credit system was flawed; even sound companies couldn't get credit with which to produce, with which to buy material, with which to buy capital, with which to invest and to produce. So the credit system problem …… that lubricant of the economy was non-existent. So those are only some of the channels through which it moved from the financial sector to the real economy.
克雷宁教授在谈话中使用了这样一些缩略语或词汇:
1 GDP (Gross Domestic Product 的缩写)国内生产总值2 Negative wealth effect 财富递减效应3 lubricant of the economy 经济的润滑剂
接下来我们把克雷宁教授的这段谈话和中文翻译分段听一遍:(英文略)
所有这些国家都是在金融行业首先出现麻烦。问题是这些麻烦如何从金融部门影响到总体经济、经济的增长以及国内生产总值呢?
有这样一些渠道。首先是我们在经济学中所称的“财富递减效应”。如果股票市场跌落百分之四十,人们会觉得自己的财富减少了。如果他们觉得自己的财富减少了,他们就会减少购物支出。如果他们减少购物支出,生产就会减少,受雇用的人数也会降低。这是一个渠道。