One of the greatest lessons that I've learnt from having studied booms for three hundred odd years, the number one rule is that all booms must bust. The larger the boom the larger the bust, the smaller the boom the smaller the bust. There's no exception to that. So that all you have to do is to identify whether you're in a boom in any investment market and then you know it will bust.
The other adage that I absolutely abide by is that you buy shares or assets, propety in doom or gloom, and you sell it in boom. Whereas of course most people do the very opposite, most people buy stocks or property when it's booming, and sell when there's gloom around.
里夫金说,我研究三百多年经济繁荣历史的最深刻认识就是所有的繁荣都会变为萧条。越繁荣,萧条就会越严重,无一例外。所以必须要确定你所涉及的投资领域是否处于繁荣期,这样你就会知道它是否将进入萧条。
我完全信奉的另一条格言是要在经济低靡或处于黑暗时期购买股票或其他资产以及房地产,在繁荣时期出售。但是大多数人却恰恰相反,在繁荣期购买股票或地产,在经济衰退时再出售。
下面我们再听一遍悉尼股票经纪人里夫金谈话的原文。(略)
在这一讲的最后,我们再听一遍今天学到的一些英文词汇:
1 boom (经济的)繁荣2 bust(经济的)萧条3 market share 市场占有量,市场份额4 speculators 投机者5 asset deflation 资产亏损6 credit risks 信贷风险7 evaluating credit worthiness of clients 评估客户信贷价值或信用声誉。
在这一讲的最后,我们再听一遍澳大利亚悉尼一位有经验的股票经纪人里夫金对繁荣与萧条的看法。(略)
这一讲金融世界节目到这里就结束了,谢谢您的收听。